UBI has been tested in controlled pilots across the US and around the world. Here is what the evidence shows, alongside a comparison of how UBI stacks up against existing welfare programs.
Real-world pilots
These are the most significant controlled experiments to date, ranging from government-run national trials to privately funded randomized studies.
Every Alaskan has received an annual oil dividend since 1982 — no application, no conditions, no work requirement. The world's longest-running basic income program. Dividend amounts have ranged from $331 to $3,284 per year.
Research shows it keeps 15,000–25,000 Alaskans out of poverty each year with no measurable reduction in employment. ISER
✓ Reduced poverty ✓ No employment impactThe first government-run, nationwide randomized UBI trial. 2,000 unemployed citizens received €560/month unconditionally for two years, compared to a matched control group receiving standard unemployment benefits.
Results: substantially improved wellbeing, reduced stress, higher trust in institutions, and employment rates statistically equal to the control group. Finnish Ministry
✓ Improved wellbeing ✓ Equal employment125 Stockton residents received $500/month for 24 months with no restrictions on spending. A matched comparison group received nothing.
Full-time employment among recipients doubled from 28% to 40%. Top spending categories were food, utilities, and car repairs. Mental health measurably improved. SEED
✓ Employment doubled ✓ Improved mental healthThe first large-scale guaranteed income trial in North America. Data was shelved by a new government and rediscovered 30 years later by researcher Evelyn Forget.
Hospitalization rates fell 8.5%. High school completion rates rose. Only two groups reduced work hours: new mothers and teenagers completing school. Forget (2011)
✓ Reduced hospitalizations ✓ More students finished schoolThe largest UBI trial in history. Over 20,000 rural Kenyans receive long-term unconditional cash transfers via mobile phone. A 12-year longitudinal study is underway.
Early results show increased assets, food security, and economic activity with no evidence of inflationary effects on local markets. GiveDirectly
✓ Assets increased ✓ No inflation effectThe Welsh government provided £1,600/month to every young person leaving care in Wales for two years. One of the first government-funded UBI pilots in the United Kingdom.
Participants reported reduced anxiety, improved housing stability, and greater ability to pursue education and employment. Welsh Government
✓ Improved stability ~ Ongoing analysis122 people received €1,200/month for three years, compared to 1,380 controls. A peer-reviewed study by the German Institute for Economic Research.
Recipients took more risks, changed jobs more freely, and reported no reduction in work motivation. DIW Berlin
✓ More risk-taking ✓ No reduction in workThe largest randomized UBI trial in US history. 1,000 low-income Americans received $1,000/month for three years; 2,000 controls received $50/month.
Recipients spent more on food, housing, and education. Full-time employment was slightly lower, but time use shifted toward caregiving and education. Work did not stop. OpenResearch
✓ More on basics ~ Slightly less paid workProgram comparison
How does a universal basic income compare to the programs that currently form the American safety net? Here are the key structural differences.
| Program | Annual spending | Universal | Unconditional | Cash | Eliminates poverty gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universal Basic Income (proposed) | $3.1T gross / ~$288B net | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Social Security (retirement) | $1.35T | Earned | Yes | Yes | No |
| SNAP (Food Stamps) | $113B | No | Work req. | In-kind | No |
| TANF (Cash Assistance) | $17B | No | Work req. | Yes | No |
| SSI (Supplemental Security Income) | $65B | No | Means-tested | Yes | No |
| Unemployment Insurance | $33B | No | Conditional | Yes | No |
| Section 8 / Housing | $60B | No | Means-tested | In-kind | No |
| EITC (Earned Income Tax Credit) | $68B | No | Work req. | Yes | No |
| Alaska Permanent Fund | ~$2B | Yes | Yes | Yes | Partial |
UBI gross cost assumes $1,000/month to 258M adults. Net cost accounts for tax clawback and welfare program offsets. All figures are approximate and vary by year and proposal design.
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